Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.074745 2.521136 3.025198 3.634193 4.347540 5.154068 6.132259
2025-04-20 1.506382 2.085289 2.813182 3.785624 5.039387 6.588982 8.634916
2025-04-27 1.144729 1.773449 2.639527 3.896848 5.648073 7.969393 11.240932
2025-05-04 0.926930 1.584063 2.563060 4.086989 6.348572 9.520205 14.227186
2025-05-11 0.724134 1.358485 2.375565 4.063587 6.716209 10.626947 16.699134
2025-05-18 0.551321 1.133275 2.134979 3.901698 6.830105 11.350271 18.662293
2025-05-25 0.417892 0.939841 1.902314 3.701136 6.835726 11.884038 20.362160
2025-06-01 0.340780 0.831330 1.793225 3.684769 7.126673 12.874644 22.838361
2025-06-08 0.284588 0.750003 1.716769 3.709423 7.481312 13.989939 25.596356
2025-06-15 0.235789 0.671213 1.628584 3.694187 7.755249 14.984339 28.224455
2025-06-22 0.182898 0.567059 1.465854 3.502969 7.672868 15.342934 29.788080
2025-06-29 0.152199 0.509290 1.391795 3.479510 7.903668 16.271475 32.406255
2025-07-06 0.125325 0.454449 1.315503 3.443956 8.115830 17.203330 35.142688
2025-07-13 0.114629 0.443362 1.343141 3.645256 8.838065 19.159191 39.903646
2025-07-20 0.101838 0.421743 1.339793 3.773990 9.420754 20.893874 44.378320
2025-07-27 0.093139 0.410704 1.362066 3.966835 10.162092 22.997304 49.695460
2025-08-03 0.078245 0.372701 1.302129 3.946870 10.427140 24.165880 53.289016
2025-08-10 0.062009 0.322745 1.195900 3.790039 10.359218 24.643696 55.555640
2025-08-17 0.048032 0.274853 1.083217 3.594849 10.173942 24.853762 57.292271
2025-08-24 0.040442 0.250546 1.038807 3.579014 10.417111 25.993301 60.990303
2025-08-31 0.034767 0.232310 1.010107 3.603093 10.761146 27.377552 65.282487
2025-09-07 0.029335 0.212394 0.970510 3.588254 11.003803 28.553502 69.209156
2025-09-14 0.022561 0.180986 0.880113 3.401851 10.776222 28.645078 70.822881